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Clintonville – "beware of sliding home prices?

by Maureen McCabe on August 1, 2007

Sunday’s Columbus Dispatch article entitled “Housing market seen as stable”  is subtitled “Central Ohio’s history makes huge price drop unlikely, analysts say”  said:

“Even so, all neighborhoods are not equal. Some pockets of central Ohio, such as Clintonville, Upper Arlington and Powell, saw swift price increases during the earlier part of this decade and have since watched prices slide.”

Clintonville average sale price residential properties* since the beginning of the decade:
2007 $195,357 (YTD)

2006 $191,072

2005 $187,999

2004 $177,027

2003 $172,218

2002 $162,067

2001 $150,712

2000 $145,399

Slide as in decrease? Slide as in they are no longer increasing as they once were?  Does that equate to “What goes up must come down?”  YTD sales show that is not happening.

I can’t tell from the way the article is written if the paragraph is from an OSU economics and expert who is quoted or if the reporter is saying the prices in Clintonville (and UA and Powell) are sliding.

I think sliding prices would mean a slanting line on the graph… like the side of a triangle. I looked and found stats for a few areas that the graphs looked kinda like something you’d find on a playground but more swings though than slides. 

Click on the graph below to make it larger.   It matches  the stats in the table.   The graph is sales price vs. list price. 

   Line graoh showing the average sale price vs. average list price for Clintonville

Date 6/06 7/06 8/06 9/06 10/06 11/06 12/06 1/07 2/07 3/07 4/07 5/07 6/07
For Sale 374 374 355 332 321 289 233 250 264 303 350 353 335
Sold 75 70 80 52 36 43 40 31 26 34 47 58 69
Pended 69 81 68 39 39 41 30 35 32 40 56 72 52
Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales 5.0 5.3 4.4 6.4 8.9 6.7 5.8 8.1 10.2 8.9 7.4 6.1 4.9
Months of Inventory based on Pended Sales 5.4 4.6 5.2 8.5 8.2 7.0 7.8 7.1 8.3 7.6 6.3 4.9 6.4
Avg. Active Price 203 201 208 207 207 204 203 204 203 205 212 210 205
Avg. Sld Price 188 187 187 194 187 180 200 200 229 178 182 202 217
Avg. Sq. Ft. Price 131 138 144 136 140 128 139 134 145 131 134 133 137
Sold/List Diff. % 97 98 97 97 97 96 96 96 96 98 97 98 97
Days on Market 71 73 77 78 105 108 138 122 130 135 87 79 89
Median Price 183 186 174 161 176 156 178 190 202 167 177 190 206

The Clintonville home prices look kind of stable to me… almost kinda stagnant … in the way Central Ohio prices have usually been…

What are prices doing in Upper Arlington and Powell?  Stay tuned!

Graph showing Clintonville homes for sale sold and pended for 15 monthsThese numbers are old news… another two weeks and July stats and graphs can be created.  It’s OK though I had the PMI study that shows Central Ohio is considered low risk for falling prices  on my blog in the end of June.   Central Ohio is not just a low risk area…  Columbus is on the list of the top 10 lowest risk markets in the US. 

The green graph above shows inventory vs. sold and pended properties.  There is less than 6 months supply of homes for the first time in a long time. It’s a normal market in Clintonville… not a buyers market (by a hair.)  It could swing back.  The graphs represent single family and condominium sales (residential properties*) in the multiple listing area that contains the Clintonville and Beechwold areas  and a few miscellaneous neighborhoods.   The sales by year above include single family and condominium (redidential properties*) as well for the same geographic area. 

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