Predicting Central Ohio home prices?

by Maureen McCabe on June 17, 2011

Who can predict Central Ohio home prices?

Crystal ball for Central Ohio Home Prices

The Case- Schiller Index hit the fan recently. May 31, 2011 the Case-Shiller Index for the first quarter of 2011 were released.  Columbus is NOT in the Case -Schiller Index.

Diana Olick, CNBC Real Estate Reporter wrote:

“I have to say, leaving yesterday’s conference, I felt a strange unease, not because we talked about the same barriers to recovery that I talk about every day of the week, but because all these experts who are supposed to tell us when it’s all going to be alright…don’t have a clue.”

The headline that came out of a conference titled “Housing Summit 2011: Boom, Bust and Beyond” came from a quote from Robert Schiller.  Olick wrote:

“Claiming that he wasn’t making any predictions, he predicted that home prices could fall another 25 percent.”

That became the headline.   Recently real estate guru Ilyce Glink wrote on the ActiveRain Real Estate network:

By any measure, last week was a tough week for the housing market: According to the latest S&P Case/Shiller Index, home values have fallen back to where they were in 2002, although in some of the hardest-hit neighborhoods, housing values have fallen back to where they were in the 1990s, or earlier.

Glink’s link in the paragraph quoted is to a pdf of the  the latest S&P Case/Shiller Index

Another 25% from today’s prices? Really?   Remember the Case-Shiller Index that created a stir when it came out a couple of weeks ago does not look at Columbus, Ohio.  Cleveland is in the Case-Shiller Index.  Columbus is not.  The Case-Shiller Index results are through March 2011.

My Columbus real estate site, Discover Columbus Ohio did home prices in March 2011! but to see March results it would have been the April report. By April I was doing Home Sales.  There is a cycle… on my three real estate sites (side bar here on Columbus real estate, Worthington real estate and Delaware County real estate.) The cycle for looking at the real estate market in Central Ohio  goes  Home Sales, Homes for Sale (inventory), Home Prices, Cha Cha Cha.  Unless something real interesting shows up….  I try to stay on the schedule.

March 2011 home prices are in the April market report posts on Discover Columbus Ohio – Columbus Ohio real estate. I wrote:

“The average sale price on a Dublin home was up 19.8% in March 2011 over the previous year, at $314,000.”

Of Olentangy schools I wrote: “The average sale price in March 2011 was $310,000, identical to March 2010.”

Westerville and Worthington average sale prices were down in March 2011… I wrote “Average sale price is $217,000 for the Worthington schools single family home in March 2011.  That is only down 1.8% from March 2010.” and “The average sale price for Westerville homes was down 12.6% from March 2010 prices at $174,000.”

Volatile home prices?

That was Dublin schools, Olentangy schools, Westerville schools and Worthington schools….

Moving on to Central Ohio home prices in May 2011….

Dublin* home prices are UP

“Dublin’s average home sale price of $333,000 is up 8.1% from May 2010.”

Olentangy school district home prices are down ; – (

“The average sale price is down 17.3″

Westerville* home prices are UP

“Westerville average home sale prices are up…7.3%”

Worthington* home prices are UP and inventory is down.

“The average sale price … was up 1.4% from last year.”

*The home prices are  single family home average sale prices with the school districts only.  I have median pricing in each Central Ohio real estate market report too.

“US Home Prices Could Still Fall a Lot More: Shiller” is the headline of the Reuters article that is linked above.

Today I read that Clear Capital said over 40% of the Columbus  market is REO?  We are on a baaaaaad list for housing prices for Clear Capital.

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1 virginiahepp June 17, 2011 at 12:35 pm

Interesting. In 2008, ‘everyone’ said that when prices came down to 2002 levels, we would be ‘at the bottom’. Now seeing prices down to the 1994 level and selling. Our little market actually does seem to be bottoming out.

2 MaureenMcCabe June 17, 2011 at 06:12 pm

Thanks Virginia. I was trying to pull 2002 on Trendgraphix but could not… much less the 1990s. I thought I should be able to. I think I can on MLS.

3 virginiahepp June 18, 2011 at 10:51 pm

Our local MLS only goes back to early 2000s – I get data from our county assessor site. It is wierd seeing the current prices reflected on sales from 1994-1996. I just cannot imagine them going down anymore, but my crystal ball is not working.

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